Age Development in Men's Singles
In a previous post, we showed the vector fields for the age development of strength values of all players. Here we will take a look at the developments for individual players in the men’s singles discipline and compare their developments to the developments for all players.
Methodology
For how the vector fields, that serve as a background in the following plots, were calculated, see the aformentioned post about age developments. In short they show the averaged development for players who shared a similar strength at certain ages.
Then for the selected players, we will calculate their simulated strength at all their birthdays and if the player fulfills the criteria of having at least ten matches used for the strength and at least one match within the last year, the data point is included. The players development is then added to the vector field in a different color. The legend will display the player’s name as well as his or her birthday.
As we only use rankings since the beginning of 2010, older players’ young years will be missing from the plots. Also for players who are still active, the later years will be missing.
Also in the vector plots, one arrow might correspond to only one entry, especially for the top players. Thus in the following plots, this arrow might be identical to the strength development of one the players in question, thus this player’s arrow will lie exactly on top of the arrow from the general plot.
Results
Lin Dan and Lee Chong Wei
We start with probably the two best men’s singles players of all time. As they were already established players when our data begins, their younger years are missing.
We can see that Lee Chong Wei managed to stay at a higher level for longer. During most of their career, Lee was estimated to have a greater strength than Lin Dan at all of their common birthdays in the data set.
Lee Hyun Il, Chen Long and Chou Tien Chen
Lee Hyun Il is a great example of a player who kept a world-class level up to a rather old age. Reaching a value of about 20 at his 35th birthday, his strength subsequently declined. His last entry is still around a value of 15 at the age of 40.
We see that Chen Long peaked around the age of 27, and has declined ever since. Chou Tien Chen on the contrary peaked only at an age of 30, he is therefore probably the example of a late bloomer.
Viktor Axelsen and Kento Momota
Axelsen and Momota were born in the same year. They both rose to levels of over 20 very fast. Axelsen was at a higher level at a younger age, this might be due to his height, which was a greater advantage at younger ages. Axelsen the reached a plateau around the ages of 25 and 26, exactly when Momota was at his peak. Lately Axelsen has surpassed Momota again.
Anders Antonsen and Loh Kean Yew
Two younger players, who were also born in the same year. We can see that Anders Antonsen rose steadily while Loh was on a plateau for the ages from 18-20. But since then his development was far better than average, his arrows pointing much more upward than the averages. Loh might be an example of a player who stalled in his development in his late teens, but still rising to world class level.
Anthony Sinisuka Ginting, Jonatan Christie and Lee Zii Jia
Jonathan Christie was the best teenager in this group. However his strength value has decreased the last two years and he was overtaken by Ginting and Lee.
Conclusion
We see some different developments, and some players can be examples for different types of players: Examples for players keeping their strength up to higher ages can be Lee Chong Wei and Lee Hyun Il. Chou Tien Chen is an example for a late bloomer, peaking at the age of 30. Jonathan Christie is maybe the best example for a player who was exceptionally good in his teens, but then could not live up to the expectations.