Will the next European Star come from France?

This article will analyze men’s singles only. As all six men’s singles finalists in the last three editions of the European Junior Championships have been from France, it is the opportunity to ask, wether this will translate into success at the senior world stage.

Strength Developments

Viktor Axelsen and Anders Antonsen

I will compare the strengths for the French players with the strengths of Viktor Axelsen and Anders Antonsen. For every month the strengths will be calculated and plotted against the age of the player at the time. Of course it is difficult to compare strengths from different points in time. As the strengths are normalized to the average strength of a top-10 player, I hope the values will be comparable.

It is fitting to use these two players because they have been European junior champions before and went on to success at the senior world stage. We will use their developments as a yardstick to compare the other players’ developments against.

Axelsen didn’t compete in many international tournaments before his 16th birthday, thus his curve starts more to the right than Antonsen’s. Both curves show a steep ascent, Antonsen’s maybe a bit more. This might be due to Axelsen’s bigger height, giving him a greater advantage in younger years. Axelsen reached higher levels, up to a value of nearly 25 after his win at Tokyo 2020. Antonsen, being about three years younger is following closely, but not overtaking Axelsen, except for the time when they both were around 20.

Toma Junior Popov

Toma is the eldest son of Toma Popov, a Bulgarian born who later shifted to France. Born in September 1998, he won bronze at the 2015 European Junior Championships in men’s singles, the two years later winning gold in both men’s singles and doubles as well as the team event.

He started close to Antonsen until around the age of 17, but then the gap widened. He also stagnated from 20 to 22, I don’t know if there were any injuries. Currently, aged almost 23, he is a bit behind Antonsen at the same age and considerably behind Axelsen. Nevertheless he already won several events at the senior level, among them the 2020 SaarLorLux Open and the 2021 Orléans Masters and Spain Masters and is currently ranked 33 in the world.

Arnaud Merkle

One and a half years younger than Toma Junior Popov, born in April 2000, Merkle was Popov’s opponent in the final at the 2017 European Junior Championships. Merkle then went on to win gold at the next edition of the championships in 2018. He has has success in the senior circuit winning the 2019 Estonian International and German International and in 2021 the Slovenian International, leading to a world ranking of 92.

He started even above Antonsen and has been advancing steadily, but not steep enough to catch Axelsen or track Antonsens improvements. Now aged 21, he is still a bit behind both Danes.

Christo Popov

Christo Popov, born in March 2002, is Toma Junior Popov’s younger brother. Continuing with the connections, Christo Popov was Merkle’s opponent in the final of the 2018 European Junior Championships. After winning silver, he went on to win silver at the 2019 World Junior Championships, earning France’s first medal at any World Junior Championships. In the next European Junior Championships he won gold in the men’s singles.

Christo Popov started in between Axelsen and Antonsen and has matched their improvements quite well. Now at age 20, the simulation rates him as good as the Danes were at the same age. He already won the Italian International in 2019 and numerours junior tournaments. He reached the top spot in the world junior rankings and in the senior world rankings he rose to rank 71.

Yanis Gaudin, Sacha Leveque, Enogat Roy

To continue with the connections, Yanis Gaudin was Christo Popov’s opponent in the 2020 European Junior Championships. He was born in December 2002. Along with Sacha Leveque, born in October 2003 and Enogat Roy, born in April 2003, they showed up in the analysis.

All three are now around 18 years of age. The gap to the Danes is probably already to wide. But they might be worth to be kept at the back of one’s mind.

Alex Lanier

The final player in this line-up. Born in January 2005, he has not been in any final of a European Junior Championships. In 2020 he reached the round of last 16. But he is still eligible for future editions of the tournament.

He is still young, but his strength curve is between the two Danes. So the future will tell, if it stays there.

He recently made headlines by winning the Lithuanian International 2021 at an age of 16 years and 138 days, thus being younger than Viktor Axelsen when he won his first senior tournament, the Cyprus International in 2010, when he was 16 years and 279 days of age.

Comparison

Finally a plot that compares all four individually discussed players to the Danes:

This shows the huge potential by Christo Popov and Alex Lanier, being at comparable strengths to the two Danes.

And the same plot, this time not ordered by age of the player, but by the date.

The curves for the French players start more to the right as they are younger. There are no common peaks or dips visible, so it is safe to assume that strengths from different dates are comparable.

European Rankings

The other question to ask is: Are there other young European shuttles, who are rated at comparable strengths. This is today’s ranking of all players from Europe with at least ten matches in the database, who were born in 2002 or later.

Rank	Strength	Matches	Born	Name
1	15.20	77	2002	Christo Popov
2	12.21	78	2002	Magnus Johannesen
3	10.59	75	2002	Joakim Oldorff
4	10.45	63	2005	Alex Lanier
5	9.70	64	2003	Mads Juel Møller
6	9.63	59	2002	Yanis Gaudin
7	9.07	44	2003	Christopher Vittoriani
8	9.00	74	2002	Matthias Kicklitz
9	8.82	30	2003	Victor Ørding Kauffmann
10	8.62	45	2003	Ethan Rose
11	8.52	53	2002	Georgii Lebedev
12	8.43	40	2003	Enogat Roy
13	8.29	33	2003	Sacha Leveque
14	8.12	31	2002	Gustav Bjorkler
15	8.02	20	2002	Leo Van Gysel

There are two remarkable things to notice: First, the gap between Popov and the second ranked player, Magnus Johannesen from Denmark, is already quite large. Second, Alex Lanier, ranked fourth, is the only player not born in the years 2002 or 2003, actually born in 2005, making him ranked higher than all other Europeans two or threes older than him, except the aforementioned Christo Popov, Magnus Johannesen and Joakim Oldorff.

World Rankings

Rank	Strength	Matches	Born	Name
1	15.20	77	2002	Christo Popov
2	14.57	14	2003	Liu Liang
3	13.54	24	2003	Yong Jin
4	13.43	27	2002	Jacky Jing Hong Kok
5	12.81	18	2002	Priyanshu Rajawat
6	12.21	78	2002	Magnus Johannesen
7	12.13	19	2002	Hak Joo Lee
8	11.99	21	2004	Muhammad Sultan Nurhabibu Mayang
9	11.95	31	2004	Jason Gunawan
10	11.87	17	2002	Alvi Wijaya Chairullah
11	11.83	18	2002	Sulistio Tegar
12	11.72	37	2002	Meiraba Meiraba Luwang
13	11.29	17	2003	Muh. Asqar Harianto
14	11.22	14	2002	Liao Jhuo-Fu
15	11.16	14	2002	Jang Byeong Chan
16	11.06	12	2002	Ko Shing Hei
17	10.98	54	2004	Justin Hoh Shou Wei
18	10.61	21	2003	Riki Takei
19	10.59	75	2002	Joakim Oldorff
20	10.48	14	2004	Tae Rim Kim

This list shows today’s strength ranking for all players worldwide that were born in 2002 or later. Christo Popov is the leader. Given that usually it is said that Asian players develop earlier whereas European players are more late bloomers, this is remarkable. Alex Lanier misses rank 20 by a whisker. It is difficult to compare him to other players in his age group, as there have not been many junior tournaments in Asia during the last months.

Conclusion

Christo Popov and Alex Lanier are players, who, if they continue their development, will be able to compete at the world class level. In general, the strength and breadth of French junior players is incredible in the last years. It will be interesting to see if they can challenge Denmark as the top nation in Europe.

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