A Look at the Future of Indian Women's Singles

In this post we will analyse the strength developments of five young Indian women’s singles players and compare their developments to the two greatest Indian women’s singles players of all time, Saina Nehwal and P.V. Sindhu.

The analysis is done similar to the analysis in the post Will the next European star come from France?, where I analysed the future of French men’s singles players and compared their developments to the Danish players Viktor Axelsen and Anders Antonsen.

Strength Developments

We will compare the development of Saina Nehwal and P.V. Sindhu’s stength values to five younger Indian players. For every first day of a month since the beginning of 2009 the strength values of these players is calculated and plotted against the age of the player at that time. As mentioned in the post above, it is difficult to compare strengths from different points in time. As the strengths are normalized to the average strength of a top-10 player, I assume that the values will be comparable. For more information about how these strength values are calulated see the page about the Simulation.

Saina Nehwal and P.V. Sindhu

Saina Nehwal and P.V. Sindhu should need no introduction. They are without doubt the most successful women’s singles players from India ever, sharing three Olympic medals and seven world championships medals between them. They will take over the roles of yardsticks the other players will be compared against.

I only used strength data from 2009 on, so Saina Nehwals curve only starts when at age 19. P.V. Sindhus curve starts at age 14 and shows a steep rise until age 16, followed by a somewhat flatter increase until about 22. It is remarkable how similar both curves are for the ages where there is data for both players, both curves are in a region around 20 for most of the time from age 20 to 28, indicating that both were and are top players.

From now we’ll limit the plots to ages below 25 as the players we compare are still young and we want to highlight their developments. We will discuss the players ordered by their age, starting with the oldest.

Aditi Bhatt

Aditit Bhatt, born in 2003, recently won the Slovak Open and was runner-up at the Polish Open. She also finished 4th at the recent Badminton Association of India Selection Trials 2022.

However the plot shows a large gap between her strengths and the two top players.

Tanya Hemanth

Tanya Hemanth, also born in 2003, last year won the Junior White Nights and was runner-up at the Polish Open. She finished fifth at the recent Badminton Association of India Selection Trials 2022.

Apart from the very beginning of her curve when she was close to P.V. Sindhu the curve shows also a big gap to the top players.

Anupama Upadhyaya

Born in 2005, she won the title at the most recent Polish Open, defeating the aformentioned Aditi Bhatt in the final.

The gap between her strength and the strengths of Sindhu is not as big as for the previous players and there is still an upward trend visible. However the gap already seems to big for her to cover.

Tasnim Mir

Also born in 2005, she was the first Indian to become world no. 1 in U-19 girls singles. She won the title at the Iran Fajr International Challenge 2022 and finished seventh at the recent Badminton Association of India Selection Trials 2022.

After being at a level comparable to Sindhu around the age of 15, her development or at least her strength value seems to have stalled. The gap has since widened considerably.

Unnati Hooda

Born in 2007, she is the youngest in our line-up. She recently made headline by winning the Odisha Open 2022 at the age of only 14. At the recent Badminton Association of India Selection Trials 2022 she finished third.

The curve for her strength starts above P.V. Sindhu’s curve. At the age of 14 her strength value is by far greater than the value the simulation assigend P.V. Sindhu at that age. Her strength value fluctuates due to the low number of matches she played so far. The latest decrease in her strength value visible in the plot is due to her losses to Malvika Bansod, Ashmita Chaliha and Aakarshi Kashyap at the aformentioned Indian selection trials.

The data, though limited, shows great promise. Yet it is still too early to tell wher her future career will bring. The potential is definitly there.

Comparison

Finally we compare all players, first in relation to their age, then in relation to the date.

The considerable gap between Sindhu’s curve and the four lower curves is obvious. Unnati Hooda’s curve is the only one above P.V. Sindhu’s, yet be reminded that there is very little data yet as Hooda is still so young. Saina Nehwal’s curve starts later so there is no direct comparison possible.

This plot shows that the younger players are on the verge of overtaking Saina Nehwal. I don’t know how long Saina is planning to continue playing, she is still the second best after P.V. Sindhu in India. But the competitors are catching up.

Indian Rankings

Finally I will show the Indian rankings for women’s singles. P.V. Sindhu leads by a wide margin, Saina Nehwal is second. The other players mentioned in this post are also positioned in the top 10.

Rank	Strength	Matches	Born	Name
1	18.86	70	1995	Pusarla Venkata Sindhu
2	12.96	18	1990	Saina Nehwal
3	12.25	63	2001	Malvika Bansod
4	11.49	32	1999	Asmita Chaliha
5	11.09	23	2007	Unnati Hooda
6	11.08	55	2001	Aakarshi Kashyap
7	10.71	44	2005	Anupama Upadhyaya
8	10.62	45	2003	Aditi Bhatt
9	10.14	51	2003	Tanya Hemanth
10	10.03	45	2005	Tasnim Mir
11	9.81	29	2000	Purva Barve
12	8.82	34	2003	Samiya Farooqui Imad
13	8.78	21	2005	Tara Shah
14	8.41	15	1997	Sri Krishna Priya Kudaravalli
15	8.38	31	1999	Ira Sharma
16	8.33	15	1994	Shruti Mundada
17	8.21	13	2004	Isharani Baruah
18	8.16	13	2003	Aashi Rawat
19	8.06	12	2003	Kavipriya Selvam
20	8.00	16	2001	Smit Toshniwal

Conclusion

It looks as if P.V. Sindhu’s spot as the leading Indian women’s singles player will not be contested in the next couple of years. With Unnati Hooda there is a very promising youngster, only aged 14, who might grow into a serious competitor and might even be the next medallist for India at the world championships or the Olympic Games in a couple of years.

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