Advantages and Disadvantages of Point-Handicap Betting

Betting on the difference of total points has become more popular in recent years. This post will take a look at some properties of point differences and advantages of disadvantages of point-handicap betting.

How do Point Differences Work?

The point difference is obtained by summing the differences for all games in a match. For example a match ending 21-10 17-21 22-20 will have differences of +11, -4, +2 for the games, which will then add up to +9. Alternatively one could sum all points a player or pair won in all games and then calculate the difference. In the example above, the first player or pair won 21+17+22 = 60 points, while its opponent won 10+21+20 = 51 points, giving a difference of 60 - 51 = +9.

A handicap is then added to this difference. So in the example above, if the first player or pair had had a point-handicap of -4.5, his adjusted number of points would have been 60-4.5 = 55.5. As this is still more than the 51 points of the opponent, the first player or pair would still have won.

A negative point-handicap is a disadvantage and makes it harder for the player to win. A positive handicap serves as a kind of head start as if the player started with the given number of points. This makes it more likely that the player will have scored more points when starting with this imaginary head start.

The greater the absolute value of the handicap is, the more independent from the actual result the result of the point-handicap will be. The closer to zero the handicap is, the more likely the winner of the match will also be the winner of the point-handicap. With a handicap of 0 the winner of the point-handicap will be the side that scores more points, which will usually be the winner of the match unless there is a three-game match with two narrowly won games and one game that was lost by a wide margin. Also note that a point-handicap of 0, or any other integer handicap, introduces the possibility of a draw in case both sides score the same number of points after including the handicap.

How to bet on Point Differences?

Bookmakers like bet365, SBOBET and Marathonbet often offer point-handicaps on many matches.

They usually set the handicap as a disadvantage to the favourite. The size of the handicap is chosen such that there is about a 50% chance for each side to win the point-handicap. That means the favourite has a chance of about 50% to win with a difference larger than the point-handicap’s absolute value. We will call this to cover the handicap. Thus if the favourite is expected to win by 9 or more points with a probability of about one in two, the bookmaker will give him a handicap of -8.5. Consequently the opponent will have a handicap of +8.5.

Sometimes a range of point-handicaps are offered, allowing to chose a point-handicap to bet on. For these handicaps the outcomes will not be equally likely, thus the odds for both sides will differ greatly from each other. Generally the larger the handicap is, the lower the odds would be. A handicap of +42 would be a sure bet and have odds of 1.0. For handicaps below zero, the more they diverge from zero the more unlikely it will be that they will be covered, thus the odds will increase.

Also note that using a half-integer handicap ensures that there will be no tie. In the case of a point-handicap of -8.5, the difference of points scored will either be above -8.5 or below. Bookmakers mostly offer half-integer handicaps, integer handicaps are only offered rarely. For integer handicaps the bookmaker’s rules usually state that the stake is paid back in the case of a tie. Be sure to read the bookmaker’s terms and conditions in case you want to bet on an integer point-handicap.

Advantages of Point-Handicap Betting

• The outcome is more uncertain in the information theory sense. Betting on huge favourites are underdogs can be unexciting as the outcome will be the expected one in most cases. Betting on point-handicaps can make the outcome less expectable.
• The odds are more sensitive to changes in the estimated strengths of the competitors. For example changing the expected winning percentage of one side from about 80% to 90% would only change their match winner odds from about 1.2 to about 1.1. The distribution of point differences will change and thus the odds for point-handicaps will change more drastically than the odds for the match winners. I might discuss this in more detail in a future post.
• It is possible to combine point-handicap bets with bets on the match winner or other bets. This allows to combine bets to distribute your risks. Betting solely on the match winner will give you an all-or-nothing outcome, either you win your bet or you lose. Betting on a player to win the match and betting on him to cover the handicap will also give rise to situations where you either win both bets or only one of the bets. It is also possible to create novel strategies, for example betting on a favourite while betting on the opponent to cover the handicap, thus effectively betting that the favourite will win, but not win by a large margin.
• You can chose your risk. That means if you want to bet on an underdog to win but are unsure, you can give the player a slight advantage by giving him or her the advantage of the point-handicap. Similarly if you want to bet on the favourite but are unsatisfied with the odds, you can bet on the favourite covering the point-handicap instead. In both cases there is a trade-off between risk and reward. Also if bookmakers offer multiple point-handicaps you can chose the handicap that suits your desired combination of risk and reward.

Disadvantages of Point-Handicap Betting

• During matches it is possible that the side one would root for changes. Normally you would hope for the player you have bet on to win as many rallies as possible. In some cases however, after betting on a player to win the point-handicap this can change. Situations can arise where it would be advantageous for your bet if the player you have bet on loses the next rally. Some examples where this can occur are given in the following list:
  1. Suppose you have bet on a handicap of +4.5 and the player you bet on trails 19-21 19-20. Losing the next point would mean losing the match 19-21 19-21 but would ensure that you win the bet. Winning the next rally on the other hand would allow for winning the second game and losing the third game by a margin large enough to lose you your bet.
  2. If you bet on a large negative handicap, e.g. -15.5 and the score is 19-19 in the first game, it might be advantageous to lose the first game. Losing 19-21 would only give a difference of -2, thus giving the chance to win the second and third game with a combined point difference of +18 or more to cover the initial handicap. Winning the first game on the other hand would only give a difference of +2 (or +1 in the case of 30-29) thus forcing your player to win the second game with a difference of at least fourteen points, which might be more unlikely than winning the second and third game with a combined difference of +18.
  3. The same can also happen in the second set. For example if you bet on a handicap of -15.5 and the score is 21-8 19-19. Winning the next points and the second game, the difference can only increase to +15. Thus it’s impossible to win the bet if the match ends in two games. Losing the second game however gives the chance to win the third game with a margin large enough to cover the handicap.
• There is also the chance that your bet might be decided by a rally that is relatively unimportant. Suppose the score is 21-15 15-21 20-11 and you have bet on a handicap of -9.5 for the first player. The outcome of your bet is ultimately decided by the outcome of the next rally. If the first player wins the next rally he or she has won the match and the point difference is +10, if he or she loses the difference can at most be +9, depending on how many points are still played. However the next rally is rather unimportant as the leader is leading by quite a margin that he or she might lean back and not take the rallies seriously anymore. The same situation might also arise with changed roles in case you bet on a handicap of +9.5 for the second player, who might simply give up at the prospect of having to defend nine match points in a row.
• The bet might also be effectively decided by a player throwing the second game. Sometimes players who face a large deficit in the second game after winning the first game might throw the game and lose the game with a large difference. This might lead to final scores like 21-19 5-21 22-20. Bets on the player covering the point difference might turn out worthless just due to the lost second game.

Point-Handicaps for Games

For important matches some bookmakers also offer to bet on the differences of points in games. Much of what was said in this post can also be applied to point-handicap betting for individual games. There are two main differences. Firstly, obviously the calculation of the difference is not necessary as you don’t need to sum over multiple games. Secondly the disadvantages stemming from possible three-game matches disappear, i.e. there is no possible reversal of who to cheer for.

Summary

Betting on point-handicaps is an exciting addition to betting only on the winner of the match. It allows for more differentiated outcomes and also allows to implement more sophisticated betting strategies. There are some peculiarities however that have to be kept in the back of one’s mind though.