Is Elite Doubles Badminton Getting Older?

Two days ago, I published a post that I wrote because I found a research paper titled Elite Badminton Is Getting Older: Ages of the Top 100 Ranked Badminton Players from 1994 to 2020¹ written by four researchers from Spain. Among the authos is a certain Pablo Abian, who has won countless Spanish national championships and international titles. The paper and the previous blog post focused on the singles categories. This post will extend the scope and analyse the ages of top-ranked doubles players. We will assess doubles players’ strength and analyse their ages with respect to the world rankings as generated by my simulation.

The Paper and the Previous Post

The paper was published in November 2021 in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. Among the four authors is also Pablo Abian’s brother Javier Abian. The authors write in the abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine the evolution of the age of badminton players in the top 100 of the World Ranking for men and women from 1994 to 2020.

So we compared their findings to results obtained using my Simulation. My analysis for the singles categories was posted in the blog post Is Elite Badminton Getting Older?.

In this post we will analyse the doubles categories. We will divide the data by the categories Men’s Doubles, Women’s Doubles and Mixed Doubles, where for mixed doubles we further distinguish between male and female players, so that we have four doubles rankings in total. The paper only analysed men’s and women’s singles, so we cannot compare our results to the paper. We can compare results by the simulation in respect to differences between singles and doubles and within the doubles sicsiplines. The questions we will ask are for example: What systematic differences appear between the different categories? At what age do players peak? How long do players stay in the top rankings?

Methodology

Just as in the post about the singles categories, we will use rankings obtained at the beginning of each month, as also used in my Monthly World Rankings. Thus we will have twelve rankings per year. My database only includes matches from 2008 onwards, so in order to have enough prior data we will only generate rankings from the year 2010 on. The latest rankings used will be for February 2022, so there are only two months used in 2022.

Just as previously, as Age we will use the integer age, that means the age rounded down to a whole number of years. So the age we use will on average be half a year less than the real age when including also the fraction of the year since the last birthday.

And again to clarify the nomenclature as this is a constant source of confusion, we set high to indicate the lowest numerical ranks, i.e. 1 is the highest rank.

Data

Average Age Per Rank - Raw Data

The four plots showing the average age per rank are given in the following.

We can see that the general pattern of the singles categories is repeated in these plots. The average age starts rather high and falls until ranks of about 200. For lower ranks there is a slower decline. We can easily see that men’s doubles players are older on average than women’s doubles players of the same rank.

Average Age Per Rank - Top 100

Combining this data with the data from the singles categories we get the following plot for the top 100 in all six categories.

Average Age Per Rank - Cumulative

Second the cumulative average age for all players at that rank or higher.

We immediately see that women’s singles has the youngest players. In the plot with the cumulative averages mostly women’s doubles and female mixed doubles players are the next youngest. Male mixed doubles players are rather young at the highest ranks, but their average age increases for lower ranks. The youth of the top male mixed doubles players is an unexpected anomaly. For the greatest part of the plot, the male players are the oldest, with the men’s doubles players mostly being the oldest.

Results and Discussion

From now on we will increase the number of players included to 200 for the level doubles categories. When we have 200 men’s doubles players, 200 women’s doubles players and 100 male and female mixed doubles players each, this accounts to 100 pairs in each discipline. Thus each discipline is represented by the same number of players. This of course introduces a difference to the singles categories as the number of players is increased.

Average Age Per Year

These plots for the doubles categories correspond to Figure 1A in the paper.

It’s difficult to spot a trend in these plots. Somehow average ages in mixed doubles fluctuate more then in level doubles. The average ages for each year are given in the following tables.

Men’s and Women’s Doubles

Year	Men’s Doubles	Women’s Doubles
2010	24.9 ± 4.5	23.5 ± 4.3
2011	25.2 ± 4.5	23.5 ± 4.5
2012	25.4 ± 4.7	23.7 ± 4.7
2013	25.0 ± 4.8	23.6 ± 4.3
2014	25.2 ± 4.7	23.7 ± 4.4
2015	25.0 ± 4.5	24.0 ± 4.1
2016	25.1 ± 4.3	24.1 ± 4.1
2017	25.1 ± 4.2	23.6 ± 3.9
2018	24.9 ± 4.2	23.5 ± 3.8
2019	24.8 ± 4.4	23.5 ± 3.9
2020	25.1 ± 4.4	23.6 ± 3.8
2021	25.0 ± 4.6	23.9 ± 3.9
2022	24.9 ± 4.7	23.9 ± 4.0
All	25.1 ± 4.5	23.7 ± 4.1

Mixed doubles

Year	Mixed Doubles (male)	Mixed Doubles (female)
2010	24.8 ± 4.4	23.6 ± 4.0
2011	25.5 ± 4.5	24.4 ± 4.5
2012	25.8 ± 4.7	24.7 ± 4.2
2013	26.0 ± 5.1	24.3 ± 4.0
2014	25.6 ± 4.9	24.4 ± 4.0
2015	25.5 ± 4.7	24.8 ± 3.9
2016	25.4 ± 4.6	25.1 ± 4.1
2017	25.0 ± 4.5	24.5 ± 4.1
2018	24.8 ± 4.6	24.4 ± 3.8
2019	24.4 ± 4.3	24.1 ± 4.0
2020	24.4 ± 3.9	24.1 ± 3.7
2021	25.1 ± 4.3	24.9 ± 3.7
2022	25.0 ± 4.1	25.0 ± 4.0
All	25.2 ± 4.6	24.4 ± 4.0

So in general, male mixed doubles players and men’s doubles players are the oldest with 25.2 and 25.1 years. Top female mixed doubles players are older than top women’s doubles players, 24.4 years compared to 23.7 years. Only including the top 100 level players would increase the average age of the level doubles players though, so it comes down to the choice whether to include 100 or 200 level doubles players when asking which category has the oldest players.

Average Age on First Entry

We can also look at the age a player enters the top 100/200 for the first time, which corresponds to Figure 1B in the paper.

The average age a player enters the top 100/200 is about 22 and thus one or two years later than in the singles categories. We can see no increase in the age for the later years as was observed in the singles categories.

Average Age at Peak

This following plot corresponds to Figure 2 in the paper. It shows the average age at which a player reached his or her highest rank. The bins for the men’s and women’s doubles refer to pairs, so that Top 100 refers to the top 200 players.

The average age a men’s doubles player who reached the top 200 reaches his peak is 24.9 years, while for a male mixed doubles player who reched the top 100 it is slightly more with 25.1 years. Women’s doubles players and female mixed doubles players peak earlier, their average ages are 23.8 and 24.4 years respectively. So, again male players peak later than female players, yet the difference is smaller than in singles. Interestingly, mixed doubles players peak later than their level doubles equivalents. The difference is minute for male players with just 0.2 years, for female players it is 0.6 years.

Frequency Distribution from the Top 100/200

These plots correspond to Figure 3 in the paper and show the frequency distribution for top players. Each plot is accompanied by a table that shows the percentages of players for difference age brackets, as does Table 1 in the paper for singles categories.

Level Doubles

Age Bracket	Men’s Doubles	Women’s Doubles
14-20 years (%)	15.3	24.9
21-25 years (%)	43.4	44.3
26-30 years (%)	28.5	24.5
>30 years (%)	12.8	6.3

We see that the curve for men’s doubles is shifted to the right compared to the curve for women’s singles, rising and falling at higher ages. We also see the largest differences in the table for the youngest and the oldest age bracket. For players up to 20 years, there are much more women’s doubles players, while for players over 30 the percentage of men’s doubles players is higher.

Mixed Doubles

Age Bracket	male	female
14-20 years (%)	14.3	16.4
21-25 years (%)	43.2	48.2
26-30 years (%)	28.9	27.6
>30 years (%)	13.6	7.8

Interestingly both curves for male and female players rise in the same way up to the age of 18. This is probably due to junior players playing together. When the players get older, the curves diverge. This can only be possible if the players as they get older switch to different partners. The curve for male players rises later and is then much higher for players over the age of 30.

In the table we see the difference between the genders in the youngest age group. It is much smaller than in the level doubles. In the mixed the difference is 2.1%, while in the levels doubles it was 9.6%. Again we see a higher fraction of male players in the oldest age bracket.

Top 100/200 Players per Continent per Year

When analysing the home continents of players in the top 100/200 we get the following plots and tables. Most results from the post about singles also hold for doubles. We see a rise in the share of Asian players during the 2010s and a corresponding decrease of European players. In 2021 and 2022 the share of Asian players is smaller due to the lower number of tournaments in Asia caused by the CoVid pandemic. One difference to the other plots is that Oceania’s share is visible in the plot for women’s doubles.

Men’s Doubles

Year	Africa	America	Asia	Europe	Oceania
2010	0.0	1.7	69.4	27.5	1.4
2011	0.0	1.0	69.8	28.4	0.8
2012	0.0	1.0	69.6	29.2	0.2
2013	0.0	1.0	74.9	23.9	0.2
2014	0.0	0.6	77.3	21.1	1.0
2015	0.0	0.5	79.9	18.8	0.8
2016	0.0	0.2	81.7	18.0	0.1
2017	0.0	0.1	82.5	17.5	0.0
2018	0.0	0.0	82.7	17.3	0.1
2019	0.0	0.0	81.8	18.0	0.2
2020	0.0	0.8	81.4	17.9	0.0
2021	0.0	1.0	66.5	32.0	0.4
2022	0.0	1.0	63.3	35.8	0.0

Women’s Doubles

Year	Africa	America	Asia	Europe	Oceania
2010	0.0	2.0	68.6	28.5	0.9
2011	0.0	2.9	71.7	23.5	1.9
2012	0.0	2.3	74.6	21.6	1.5
2013	0.0	1.2	77.8	20.1	0.9
2014	0.0	1.5	79.9	17.1	1.5
2015	0.0	1.9	81.2	16.1	0.8
2016	0.0	0.8	82.3	16.1	0.9
2017	0.0	0.8	85.8	12.5	1.0
2018	0.0	1.8	85.1	11.5	1.6
2019	0.0	2.5	82.3	13.9	1.4
2020	0.0	1.3	79.6	18.1	1.0
2021	0.0	1.8	61.6	35.6	1.1
2022	0.0	3.3	51.8	43.5	1.5

Mixed Doubles (male)

Year	Africa	America	Asia	Europe	Oceania
2010	0.0	2.1	70.7	24.7	2.6
2011	0.0	0.8	72.8	25.0	1.5
2012	0.0	1.5	67.3	30.9	0.3
2013	0.0	2.0	69.0	29.0	0.0
2014	0.0	0.5	68.3	31.3	0.0
2015	0.0	0.0	71.7	28.0	0.3
2016	0.0	0.0	76.5	23.5	0.0
2017	0.0	0.0	76.3	23.4	0.3
2018	0.0	0.0	74.9	25.0	0.1
2019	0.0	0.0	76.3	23.8	0.0
2020	0.0	1.0	75.9	23.1	0.0
2021	0.0	1.3	56.6	41.9	0.3
2022	0.0	3.0	52.5	44.5	0.0

Mixed Doubles (female)

Year	Africa	America	Asia	Europe	Oceania
2010	0.0	3.7	69.8	25.3	1.3
2011	0.0	2.7	68.9	27.7	0.8
2012	0.0	2.1	65.0	32.7	0.3
2013	0.0	0.8	69.6	29.4	0.2
2014	0.0	0.4	70.5	29.0	0.1
2015	0.0	0.0	72.0	27.0	1.0
2016	0.0	0.0	75.2	24.8	0.0
2017	0.0	0.0	77.5	22.5	0.0
2018	0.0	0.1	77.5	22.4	0.0
2019	0.0	0.0	75.7	24.2	0.2
2020	0.0	0.8	77.8	21.3	0.0
2021	0.0	1.0	57.3	41.7	0.1
2022	0.0	1.5	55.5	43.0	0.0

Distribution of Length of Stay in the Top 100/200

We can as well ask, how long players stayed in the top 100/200 for each category. We bin the players according to the same classification as in the analysis for singles.

Number of months in the Top 200	Men’s Doubles ( n = 762)	Women’s Doubles ( n = 789 )
36 months or less (%)	58.9	62.2
37 to 72 months (%)	23.4	20.4
73 to 108 months (%)	11.0	12.2
more than 108 months (%)	6.7	5.2

Number of months in the Top 100	Mixed Doubles (male, n = 457)	Mixed Doubles (female, n = 443 )
36 months or less (%)	67.6	67.3
37 to 72 months (%)	18.8	18.7
73 to 108 months (%)	9.6	9.0
more than 108 months (%)	3.9	5.0

We see that the percentages of players who stay 36 months or less in the top rankings are larger than for singles. It is unclear if part of this difference is due to players switching from level doubles to mixed doubles or the other way around during their career. Although male mixed doubles players are even a bit older on average than men’s doubles players, the share of players staying in the rankings for more than nine years is significantly smaller, which might also be explained by players switching between doubles disciplines during their career.

Players with the most Months among the Top 100/200

Again we can look at the players who stayed in the top 100/200 the longest. There are 146 monthly rankings in the data set, so the maximum value of 146 would indicate that the player was in the top rankings over the entire time frame.

Men’s Doubles

As another evidence of the longevity of men’s doubles players, there are 13 players in the data set, who were in the top 200 each month. Some of them have already retired from international badminton though, like Hiroyuki Endo, Mads Pieler Kolding or Michael Fuchs, but are still in the rankings, either because their last match was less than twelve months ago or they continued to play in domestic tournaments.

Nr.	#Months	Player
1	146	Chris Langridge
		Hendra Setiawan
		Hiroyuki Endo
		Ivan Sozonov
		Kim Ki Jung
		Mads Pieler Kolding
		Marcus Ellis
		Michael Fuchs
		Min Chun Liao
		Mohammad Ahsan
		Tan Wee Kiong
		Vladimir Ivanov
		Wei Shem Goh
14	145	Lee Yong Dae
15	142	Anders Skaarup Rasmussen
		Ko Sung Hyun
		Shin Baek Choel
18	140	Bodin Issara
19	139	Chia Bin Lu
		Zhang Nan

Women’s Doubles

Here we have four players who were in each monthly ranking.

Nr.	#Months	Player
1	146	Ashwini Ponnappa
		Greysia Polii
		Sapsiree Taerattanachai
		Vivian Kah Mun Hoo
5	145	Jang Ye Na
		Selena Piek
7	143	Lee So Hee
8	140	Misaki Matsutomo
9	136	Shin Seung Chan
		Yonemoto Koharu
11	135	Ayaka Takahashi
		Jung Kyung Eun
13	133	Della Destiara Haris
14	131	Kurumi Yonao
		Nadya Melati
		Naoko Fukuman
		Nuraidah Tiara Rosalia
18	127	Lee Meng Yean
		Mei Kuan Chow
20	125	Eom Hye Won
		Olga Konon

Mixed Doubles (male)

Nr.	#Months	Player
1	146	Chan Peng Soon
		Ko Sung Hyun
3	144	Chris Adcock
4	142	Marcus Ellis
5	133	Tantowi Ahmad
6	131	Lu Kai
7	124	Zhang Nan
8	123	Evgenij Dremin
9	121	Joachim Fischer Nielsen
10	119	Hafiz Faisal
11	118	Danny Bawa Chrisnanta
12	117	Riky Widianto
13	114	Min Chun Liao
		Robert Mateusiak
15	112	Kim Ki Jung
16	111	Yoo Yeon Seong
17	109	Praveen Jordan
		Shin Baek Choel
19	108	Wang Yi Lyu
20	107	Michael Fuchs

Mixed Doubles (female)

Nr.	#Months	Player
1	146	Goh Liu Ying
2	144	Gabrielle Adcock
3	142	Misaki Matsutomo
4	141	Eom Hye Won
5	130	Chau Hoi Wah
6	128	Pei Jing Lai
		Selena Piek
8	125	Savitree Amitapai
9	124	Pia Zebadiah Bernadeth
		Tse Ying Suet
11	123	Christinna Pedersen
12	121	Debby Susanto
		Liliyana Natsir
14	118	Yoo Jung Chae
15	116	Evgenia Dimova
16	114	Jang Ye Na
17	112	Kim Ha Na
		Melati Daeva Oktaviani
		Nina Vislova
20	111	Ashwini Ponnappa

Malaysians Chan Peng Soon and Goh Liu Ying were in every ranking and as far as I can see always as a pair. The only other player to have been constantly in the top 100 was Ko Sung Hyun. Chinese Zhang Nan was in the rankings for 124 months and would probably have been even more if he had not switched to playing men’s doubles only.

Conclusion

This post is a bit shorter than the one on the singles categories as we cannot compare our results to the paper’s findings.

However, we found that doubles players are older than singles players. We couldn’t identify a tendency for the average age of top-ranked doubles players to increase during the last years. Also the influence of Olympic cycles was not visible.

We found that male players are older than female players and peak at later ages. Interestingly, mixed doubles players peak later than their level doubles equivalents. The difference is minute for male players and more pronounced for females. The later peaks for mixed doubles players might be due to the more tactical nature of mixed doubles compared to regular doubles.

It might be interesting to see if it would be a good advice to switch from singles to doubles during one’s career. As doubles players peak later than singles players, a player switching from singles to doubles could possibly experience both peaks during his career. Also mixed doubles players peak later than level doubles player, so switching to mixed doubles might as well be advantageous. The differences are quite small though.

We confirmed the increase of the share of Asian players in the rankings that was found for the singles categories during the 2010s, as well as the decrease during the CoVid pandemic.

One remaining question is how the changing between level and mixed doubles categories might have affected the results. For example a player who exclusively plays mixed doubles until he is 28, then switches to level doubles will achieve his peak ranking in level doubles after the age of 28, even though he might have already surpassed his peak as a player in general.

For more discussion, we can refer to the Conclusion in the previous post as well as the original paper.

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